New South Wales made the most of a one-man advantage in Game 1 to take a 1-0 series lead for the second year running and get an opportunity to avoid the error of their wicked ways from 2025, in which they were completely bulldozed prior to half-time in the two following games to lose the series 2-1. Unfortunately for Laurie Daley’s men, that first half mismatch was again on show prior to Kalyn Ponga’s red card in Sydney, which was issued with the Maroons in front 20-6 only to fail to register another point from there.
Daley has therefore had to respond like a losing coach and has done so with some bold selections, including reverting to incumbent half Mitch Moses - despite Moses not yet playing since the injury that ruled him out of Game 1, and Moses’ understudy Ethan Strange arguably putting in a Player of the Match performance in Sydney.
Queensland have favoured stability where they can, with the exception of shifting Reuben Cotter to lock. Ponga has retained his place at fullback ahead of Reece Walsh after escaping with a fine for his Game 1 offence and the Maroons also have some other players in fine club form, such as hooker Harry Grant.
Origin series are rarely decided within two games these days, but for Billy Slater’s side, it could be as simple as replicating last round’s first half across the entire 80 minutes with a full complement of players, especially if they can continue to earn an advantage around the rucks.
Head-to-Head History
The last ten H2Hs were shared five apiece. New South Wales are on a four-game winning streak at the MCG, whilst there have been seven games played outside of New South Wales or Queensland over the last decade and they were split 4-3 in favour of the Blues.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The last five Origin matches were decided by a 1-12 point margin.
Queensland scored 18+ points in eight of the last 11 matches.
The first half was the highest scoring half in seven of the last eight games.
A back scored the opening try in each of the last five Origins.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
New South Welshman Brian To’o will be looking to return to his excellent Origin try scoring record that has seen him dot down in four of the last six Origins, as well Queensland back Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow who scored in game one to record his seventh try scoring appearance in Origin since the start of 2023.
New South Wales regained Mitch Moses but lost Casey McLean and Stephen Crichton. Billy Slater had to replace Pat Carrigan and Gehamat Shibasaki in his squad.
Betting Analysis
Ponga’s sending off in Game 1 was decisive, and should they keep 13 men on the field this time, we are expecting Queensland to win.