World ranking number ten up for grabs as Wales and Japan search for statement wins

Match News and Current Form

Wales avoided a 16th successive defeat in the Six Nations Championship thanks to a final day win over Italy in Cardiff earlier this year and when they then followed that up with another victory against Fiji at the start of July, there was talk of a corner being turned. However, they were then beaten 35-21 by Argentina and 43-0 by South Africa to begin this round of Nations Championship games in fifth place in the Northern Hemisphere standings. 

Head coach Steve Tandy has opted to make seven personnel changes to his side’s heavy defeat in Durban and has picked his sixth different centre partnership from 13 internationals in the job, with Max Llewellyn and Eddie Jones paired together.

They’ll be up against Samisoni Tua and Dylan Riley in the same positions for Japan with head coach Eddie Jones, who was in charge of the Cherry Blossoms when they beat Wales at home in 2013 and 2025, giving a debut to fly-half Riku Kitahara.

Japan got off to a winning start in the Nations Championship, seeing off Italy 27-10 in Tokyo before defeats against Ireland and France to leave them above only Fiji in the Southern Hemisphere. They then clocked up two more losses in a row against Australia before embarking on a three game winning streak versus Canada, Japan and Fiji but came into this fixture off the back of a 28-34 loss against Fiji once more. 

Head-to-Head History

Wales have won all five previous H2Hs in Cardiff, although the last two have been won by margins of just one and three points.

Hot Stats and Streaks

Wales have been ahead at half-time in their last two home games after trailing or going in level in their previous six as hosts.

Wales have scored a try within the opening 20 minutes of six of their last seven home matches.

Japan have recorded 22-24 points in each of their last three H2Hs against Wales.

Japan have scored the first points in each of their last four matches.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Josh Adams has got a try in two of Wales’ last three games in Cardiff while Mamoru Harada has touched down for Japan in three consecutive matches before missing out in their last game.

Rio Dyer is out for Wales while Japan appear to be at full strength.

Click here to see the latest team selection news for the Nations Championship.

Betting Analysis

After scoring the first points in each of their last four matches, backing Japan to score first once again is an appealing market.