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Who are the frontrunners for the West Ham job should Graham Potter be sacked?

West Ham manager Graham Potter during his post-match press conference after defeat to Crystal Palace
West Ham manager Graham Potter during his post-match press conference after defeat to Crystal PalaceČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Daniel Bearham

Another London derby and another defeat for West Ham United, this time against a resurgent Crystal Palace that are now unbeaten in 17 matches in all competitions.

For Graham Potter, he can't buy a home win this season and, in fact, since he took over the hot seat at the Hammers back in January, he's only seen his side win two games at the London Stadium in all competitions.

The first came against Fulham in Potter's opener in East London, and the only other game where the home support got to celebrate three points was in February against Ruud van Nistelrooy's turgid Leicester City side, who were subsequently relegated.

At the very least, any manager has to win his home games and hopefully pick up the odd point here or there on the road and let's be clear, Julen Lopetegui was sacked for a record that was better than his successor.

No magic wand from Potter

The Spaniard was derided by the East London faithful, but he oversaw four home wins (and seven wins in total) in his 22 games in charge. Potter's six wins have come in 25 games so far, with just the one - at Nottingham Forest - occurring this season, to give him an appalling 24% win percentage.

​David Sullivan and Karren Brady are therefore once again stuck between a rock and a hard place.

If they were to sack the 50-year-old manager anytime soon, not only would they likely need to pay him out for the remaining year and a half of his contract, but there would be a tacit acceptance that they'd got it wrong again. 

Should the Hammers not manage to win against either Everton or Arsenal before the next international break, there's a strong likelihood the board will have to act, though what that would mean in practice is that they'd gone through two managers in less than 50 games (Arsenal will be game 49 under either Lopetegui or Potter).

To date, there have been 47 matches overseen by either of the last two managers, 24 of which have resulted in defeat, 10 of which have been drawn, and 13 won.

Former Hammer emerges as frontrunner

If the rumours that are swirling, which suggest that the board are considering all available options, are accurate, then it is paramount that the same recruitment mistakes are not made again because there would appear to be a feeling of being at another tipping point in the club's history.

Some of the names being touted as Potter's replacement, either short or long-term, may not inspire confidence, though it's worth taking note of the data to see whether it would support any candidature or not.

West Ham's current form
West Ham's current formFlashscore

Former player and manager Slaven Bilic has emerged as the frontrunner and holds the unique honour of having managed the club during their final season at Upton Park and their first at the London Stadium.

Sacked by the club in 2017 for underwhelming performances, he has since gone on to manage Al Ittihad, West Bromwich Albion, Beijing Guoan, Watford and Al Fateh, all of whom he was either sacked from or left by mutual consent.

However, aside from David Moyes, he is the most successful Hammers manager of the last decade, winning (38) and drawing (28) more matches than Manuel Pellegrini and Sam Allardyce put together.

In terms of home wins (23), away wins (15), a win percentage of 37.6% and goals scored (146), only Moyes can claim a better record, but the Scot oversaw 124 more games than the Croat.

Is Gary O'Neil the man for the job?

Assuming that Bilic is unable or unwilling to return to East London, where he's likely to be the most popular of choices amongst the fan base, the board could turn to Gary O'Neil, another former player.

O'Neil, 42, played for the club between 2011 and 2013, and was most recently employed by Wolverhampton Wanderers as first-team manager, a role he was sacked from in December 2024 when the club were in 19th and four points from safety.

Second from bottom is exactly the position in the Premier League table West Ham find themselves in at the moment, so there are reasons to believe that a manager whose last appointment took his club to those depths isn't the ideal choice to lift a new club out of it.

In terms of numbers, O'Neil has managed exactly 100 games in his career, split between Bournemouth and Wolves. 31 were won, 17 drawn, and 52 lost. 

Gary O'Neil quote
Gary O'Neil quoteOpta by Stats Perform

A 37.8% win percentage in his first season with the Midlands-based outfit was marginally better than Bilic's record with the Hammers, though the drop off the following season to 16.7% was remarkable.

For West Ham fans who love to watch attacking football, the 135 goals scored in total in O'Neil's century of games in charge of both clubs should be enough of an indicator that he's not the right man to replace Potter.

That said, if the club and supporters are willing to back cult hero Bilic, his West Ham team scored only 146 goals in 101 matches. Does being just 11 goals better off make him a better candidate than O'Neil?

Yes or no to Nuno?

The final name in the frame at present is the recently sacked Nuno Espirito Santo.

Looking at his Premier League management at Wolves, Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest only, his best win percentage (45.6%) came in 2018/19 with the former, but was closely followed by a 45.5% showing last season with the latter.

Even his worst campaign (2023/24 with Forest) saw him with a better win percentage (26.9%) than Potter's, but in four of his eight seasons in charge of a Premier League team, his teams have been outscored by the opposition.

Further, though his defensively-minded formations and counter-attacking style worked wonders for the Tricky Trees as he guided them back into Europe, would disillusioned season ticket holders at the London Stadium settle for a way of playing that is anathema to everything they hold dear?

Decisions, decisions....

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore