The stats behind Arsenal's trip to Southampton as Gunners try to keep treble dream alive

Arsenal's Gabriel Martinelli is put under pressure by Southampton's Tyler Dibling
Arsenal's Gabriel Martinelli is put under pressure by Southampton's Tyler DiblingČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Izzy Poles/News Images

As we enter the final straight in a number of competitions, Arsenal are still fighting on three fronts: the FA Cup, Premier League and Champions League.

A healthy lead in the English top flight of nine points over Man City will only come down to three if Pep Guardiola's side win their game in hand and then beat the Gunners in just over a fortnight, making the last few games of the season incredibly exciting.

Southampton unbeaten in 14 games in all competitions

Sporting are next up in the Champions League with a tie against Barcelona or Atletico Madrid facing the winners.

First up, however, is an FA Cup date with Southampton.

The Saints are on a tremendous run of form, having not lost in 14 games in all competitions, though they've not won any of their last five FA Cup quarter-finals against top-flight opposition, including against Arsenal in 1979. 

Southampton's current form
Southampton's current formFlashscore

You have to go way back to 1962/63 for the last time the South Coast club progressed to the semi-finals as a second-tier side. 

The Gunners, meanwhile, have gone through in 45 of their last 48 FA Cup ties against teams from lower divisions. Only Nottingham Forest (twice) and Blackburn have emerged victorious against the North Londoners in such games.

It's clear that Mikel Arteta's men will be favourites to progress again this time around, and should they do so, it would put Arsenal within touching distance of winning the only major trophy that the Spaniard has to his name as manager of the club.

Arsenal's injury concerns

The Gunners shouldn't be complacent, though, particularly as Southampton dumped Premier League opposition out of the competition in the last round, beating Fulham at Craven Cottage.

With the North Londoners' last match being the Carabao Cup final defeat against Man City, Arteta will want his side to get that loss out of their system quickly, particularly as the games come thick and fast over the next few weeks.

He could certainly have done without such bad news from the recent international break, too. 

Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice, Gabriel, Noni Madueke, Bukayo Saka, Piero Hincapie, Martin Zubimendi and William Saliba are all facing late fitness tests to determine whether they'll play any part against the Saints.

Jurrien Timber and Leandro Trossard should be back, but two players who are definitely out are Eberechi Eze and Mikel Merino.

Though the Saints don't have a clean bill of health, they're only missing Leo Scienza, Welington and Jay Robinson, all three of whom will also take a late fitness test ahead of the match.

Recent history favours the Gunners

The two clubs have met as recently as last season, with the Gunners coming out on top in both games. 

A 3-1 win at the Emirates Stadium was followed up by a 2-1 victory at St. Mary's, as Southampton made an immediate return to the Championship after a season that saw them acquire just two wins and 12 points to finish rock bottom of the Premier League.

Southampton v Arsenal - Recent H2H results
Southampton v Arsenal - Recent H2H resultsFlashscore

The last six H2H meetings have seen the Saints win only once, back in April 2022. Two have been draws with Arsenal winning the other three, though the Gunners have only stopped Southampton from scoring once in that run.

If the hosts want to have any chance of winning this game, then they need to stop Gabriel Martinelli, who has been the North Londoners' dangerman in the competition.

Not only has he scored the most goals (four), but he's also taken the most total shots (10) and had the most on target (five).

Kuryu Matsuki's five total shots and three on target are best-in-class for the Saints, who have spread their FA Cup goals out between several players (one each from Matsuki, Ross Stewart, Cameron Archer, Cameron Bragg, James Bree and Cyle Larin).

Attacking game expected

The conversion rate of 30% is the same for both sides in the competition this season, whilst Arsenal's 87% cumulative possession is only a slight improvement on the 81% of Tonda Eckert's side.

A free-flowing and attacking game should therefore be expected, with the Gunners scoring the majority of their goals in the opening half hour, and the Saints coming into their own in the 15 minutes directly before half-time.

Home advantage could favour Southampton, particularly as all of the pressure will be on the visitors to get a result.

With a treble dream still very much alive, however, it shouldn't take much for Arteta to rally his troops, and it really would need an off day from the Gunners to give the hosts even a sniff of a major upset.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore