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Why Bayern Munich have to be at their best to win Der Klassiker against Borussia Dortmund

A photo montage of Bayern Munich's Harry Kane and Borussia Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy
A photo montage of Bayern Munich's Harry Kane and Borussia Dortmund's Serhou GuirassyFrank Hoermann/SVEN SIMON / SVEN SIMON / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP / Profimedia

Der Klassiker is the major fixture in this coming weekend's Bundesliga calendar, as Borussia Dortmund travel to Bavaria in the hope of dismantling a Bayern Munich side who've enjoyed a perfect start to the German league season.

In fact, it's their best start to a campaign since 1965. In just six games, all of which have been won, Bayern have scored 25 and let in just three.

Bayern's toughest test of the season

However, their toughest test of the 2025/26 Bundesliga season so far is sure to come from second-placed BVB, who are just four points behind and with a goals record of 12 scored and four conceded. 

They too remain unbeaten thanks to four wins and two draws from their six games, two of which have been 2-0 victories away from Signal Iduna Park and four of which have seen them keep a clean sheet. 

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund - Live win probability
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund - Live win probabilityOpta by Stats Perform

Dortmund have also won their last two away games against reigning German champions, but where they should be wary is in the knowledge that Bayern have won all of their last eight league games - the Bavarians' longest streak of consecutive victories since 2020 - and their last five home fixtures, during which they've not conceded a single goal.

Furthermore, in the last seven of those games, they've scored at least three times, and are also in the midst of the longest ongoing unbeaten run across Europe’s big five leagues (15 games and counting).

Saturday night's alright for Bayern

In their last 12 televised Saturday evening matches, Bayern remain unbeaten (W8, D4), and in the last 14 games between these two Bundesliga giants, they've lost only once (W10, D3).

However, they didn't win any of the three most recent matches against Dortmund (D2, L1), and therefore have a point to prove to themselves.

With Harry Kane streaking ahead in the goalscoring charts this season, no one would bet against him adding to his sensational 11 goals scored in the league already, not to mention the three assists he's also provided.

Teammate Luis Diaz has also been in amongst the goals, scoring five and assisting for four more in his six league matches.

Guirassy to spearhead Dortmund charge

Dortmund will look to talisman Serhou Guirassy to be the difference maker, and though he already has four goals and assists this season, as well as the most shots for his team (18) and the most on target (14), he hasn't registered a goal against Bayern since the 2022/23 campaign.

​He will therefore need to be ably supported by those around him of course, particularly when one considers just how dominant Bayern have been in their games this season.

Over the course of those first half-dozen Bundesliga matches, the Bavarians are top in terms of the amount of total shots any club in the German top flight has had (117), they've had the most shots on target (58), their conversion rate of 28% is the best in the division, they've played the most passes (3888) and their 89% pass completion stat can't be topped.

Last 15 minutes vital for Dortmund

​Dortmund do come in third on most of those metrics so are not drastically far behind, though it's clear that the Bayern juggernaut has to be brought to a juddering halt just for BVB to have any chance whatsoever of making a game of it.

The visitors to the Allianz Arena have scored most of their goals in the 15 minutes prior to the half-time whistle, whilst they are at their most vulnerable in the final 15 minutes of matches this season.

Bayern have also conceded the most in that period between 75 and 90 minutes, though it's important to note that this is also when they've scored the joint most (five goals).

Therefore, Nico Kovac has to hope his side can still be in the game as it reaches the last knockings, and then to be able to shut up shop and keep the likes of Kane and Diaz on the periphery.

Goals guaranteed

With it being at least 18 games since either side have had a goalless draw and at least 14 since either failed to score in a game, it's a sure bet that there will be goals galore in this one.

It's unlikely that the visitors will bag one from the spot, however, as it's been 38 matches since Bayern conceded a penalty.

If the hosts do score first too, then the likelihood is that Dortmund will find it difficult to get a way back into this game as there's been no stopping Bayern when they've gone ahead.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund - Recent head-to-head results
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

Knocking them out of their stride early therefore has to be part of Kovac's game plan if he wants his side to emerge with at least a point from this one.

Importantly for both managers, neither side has any new injury concerns ahead of the latest chapter in such a storied rivalry.

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Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore