Match News and Current Form
Each team sport has some national or club teams who become immensely frustrating to follow either as a fan or a neutral observer because of their extreme highs and lows. Tottenham supporters in particular will know what that feels like. Argentina rugby supporters could be forgiven for thinking their team has been stagnant in such a position for several years, experiencing the peaks of defeating upcoming opponents New Zealand away twice but losing to the likes of Scotland and Wales.
Most recently, they rocked the British & Irish Lions to hand the Lions a very rare loss in a tour opener - 54 years, in fact - but then lost twice on home soil to a second-string England team missing no fewer than 15 players on tour. Even though many of their Top 14 players were being rested, they were favourites on both occasions, the only time they had ever started against England as favourites, which highlighted just how underwhelming a two-game series it was. Head coach Felipe Contepomi rotated players throughout their four mid-year games but is not mucking around for the opening round of the Rugby Championship as they seek to avoid the wooden spoon for a third consecutive year.
Nor is New Zealand head coach Scott Robertson who, after the team had three weeks off, picked what he believes is his strongest possible team with no uncapped players in the squad. That includes Sevu Reece and Rieko Ioane on the wings, Ardie Savea at number eight and Cortez Ratima at halfback. They got through a three-game home series against France undefeated, experimenting with their lineup in response to France resting almost all of their best players after a busy club season.
The All Blacks have won 20 of the 29 titles to be contested since the beginning of the Tri-Nations tournament in 1996 and not since 2000-01 have they gone successive years without lifting the trophy, so reclaiming the crown from South Africa will be well within their reach, particularly as they’ve had the most favourable draw with two of their three away games coming against the weakest team of the competition (on paper, at least). Combine that with an unbeaten record (W13 D1) away to Argentina and they look formidable.
Head-to-Head History
Argentina have shown themselves to be capable of causing the occasional upset against New Zealand, albeit their competitive efforts are few and far between. The Pumas won three of the ten H2Hs to take place this century, but their average losing margin across the seven defeats was a hefty 35 points. All three victories were in either New Zealand or Australia.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The last five H2Hs all produced at least 50 total points
65% of Argentina’s tries scored this year were recorded after half-time
New Zealand have a W4 L1 record since the start of last year when conceding the first try
The first half was the highest scoring half in 16 of New Zealand’s last 20 matches
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Argentina number ten Tomás Albornoz recorded his own three-game stretch of try scoring appearances last year, including two Rugby Championship matches against the Springboks. There’s no stopping star All Blacks fullback Will Jordan, who scored tries in all three games against France. His current rate of 0.95 tries per match stands as the second-best of all-time for anyone with at least 30 international tries, so he’s quickly closing in on Doug Howlett’s national team record.
Francisco Gomez Kodela retired after Argentina’s last match whilst Matías Moroni was dropped. The trio of Emiliano Boffelli, Benjamín Grondona and Thomas Gallo are out through injury. For New Zealand, halfback Cam Roigard and his deputy Noah Hotham both missed the tour along with number eights Wallace Sititi and Luke Jacobson.
Betting Analysis
Some of New Zealand’s most dominant performances against Argentina took place in South America so home nation advantage may be out of the question here and we can therefore back New Zealand -7.5 confidently.