Match News and Current Form
South Africa looked at their scintillating best in the first 20 minutes, opening up a 22-0 lead before it all came crashing down. The Springboks will now want to avoid losing back-to-back test matches for the first time since November 2022, and failing to do so will see them suffer defeat in their opening two games of a Rugby Championship campaign for the first time since 2015!
Coach Rassie Erasmus has chosen rotation as the answer, making ten changes to his starting XV. The only people to retain their places are Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, Marco van Staden, Grant Williams, and Jesse Kriel, who claims captaincy of the national side for just the second time. Elsewhere, Jean-Luc du Preez will get his first test start in seven years, while all eyes will be on flyhalf Handrè Pollard when the kicking tee comes out, as he’s just three points shy of notching up 800 points in Springbok colours.
Australia must be credited fully for their fightback last week, having proved against the British and Irish Lions that they’re very much trending in the right direction once again. That’s now two wins on the trot for the Wallabies, who’ll be gunning for three consecutive victories for the first time since July 2024. That would coincide with starting either a Tri-Nations or Rugby Championship campaign with successive wins for just the third time in their history, a feat that would make them a real contender for this year's title.
Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt has only made enforced changes to his Starting XV, three of them, with last week’s tryscorers Dylan Pietsch and Harry Wilson suffering injuries, replaced by debutant Corey Toole and Rob Valetini. Tom Robertson takes over at prop from the injured James Slipper, and the withdrawal of Wilson means the side will be captained by flanker Fraser McReight.
Head-to-Head History
South Africa will be looking to protect the seven-game winning streak they possess over Australia when facing them in Cape Town, while the Wallabies will be looking to defeat the Springboks twice in the same Rugby Championship campaign for the first time since 2016.
Hot Stats and Streaks
South Africa scored more of their points before half-time in eight of their last ten games.
A backline player has scored South Africa’s first try in three of their last four home games.
Australia’s opening try came from a winger or fullback in seven of their last nine games.
Australia have scored more of their points after half-time in four of their last five away games.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
The Springbok forwards will be looking to assert themselves, meaning Malcolm Marx, who scored tries against the Barbarians and Italy this year, and two against Australia last year, could be the benefactor from a rolling maul. A different way of attacking comes from Australian starlet centre Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, who has either scored or assisted a try in each of his last three test matches.
Betting Analysis
In South Africa’s seven-game winning streak against Australia in Cape Town, they failed to score over 30 points in all those games, meaning taking the Aussies on the +13.5 handicap could be the right play.