Match News and Current Form
Throughout the week, Australian rugby writers have been evoking memories of the 2001 series when the Wallabies, bruised not only by a 29-13 loss in Game 1 but by the seas of red at The Gabba, metaphorically painted Docklands Stadium yellow and inspired their men to an even bigger winning margin of their own (35-14). This time, the iconic MCG is expected to have armies of more than 40,000 fans supporting each side as the Wallabies look to level the series 1-1 for a third consecutive time after also doing so in 2013 (16-15).
Aussie head coach Joe Schmidt welcomes back an immense load of power to his forward pack which should strengthen what was already a reasonably stubborn defence in Brisbane last weekend. He declared on Thursday he doesn’t want his players to be “nice or submissive”, naming a 6-2 bench stacked with forwards he hopes will make life hard for the tourists.
The British & Irish Lions camp have been hit but not destabilised by injury in the last week, and whilst head coach Andy Farrell has made seven changes to his matchday squad for injury and tactical reasons, they’re still favourites for good reason. A narrow five-point win over a First Nations & Pasifika XV team during the week can be almost completely ignored knowing that none of their starters for this game played on Tuesday.
Instead, we must assess their performance from last week, during which their efforts at the gainline were much better than the final winning margin suggests. That theremore means that a boost to Australia’s forward pack won’t necessarily mean an improved result as far as the Wallabies are concerned, particularly as Farrell has turned his focus towards chemistry and cohesion, stacking his team with members of the Irish side, who for years have been feared as the best forward pack the northern hemisphere has to offer. They too must be expected to improve.
Head-to-Head History
The Lions now have a 4-3 record over Australia since the start of the 2001 tour, but lost both games that were played in Melbourne during that time. Those were the only two H2Hs to be played in Melbourne throughout Lions history.
Hot Stats and Streaks
• Australia lost 14 of their last 15 games as a betting outsider.
• Australia trailed at half-time in ten of their last 11 losses.
• All seven of the Lions’ games in 2025 finished under the main total points handicap.
• The Lions scored the majority of their points before half-time in four of their last five matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Max Jorgensen was one of Australia’s three try scorers last week and, as a result, has now found the line in three of his last six internationals. Huw Jones was a late callup to the starting XV but certainly not one without merit, having scored three tries on this tour including in games against the Queensland Reds and NSW Waratahs.
David Porecki, Will Skelton and flanker Rob Valetini all return from injury in place of Nick Champion de Crespigny, Matt Faessler and Jeremy Williams. Sione Tuipulotu, Mack Hansen and Joe McCarthy are all out with injury for the Lions.
Betting Analysis
Melbourne is expected to see one of its wettest days of the winter on Saturday, and whilst the MCG surface does not get slippery, it could nonetheless make attacking rugby a little more difficult. Combine that with Australia’s more powerful pack and under 49.5 total match points looks likely.