Match News and Current Form
Welsh rugby has been in freefall at the same time that Argentina is on the rise and Wales’ place in the global pecking order was all too stark when the Pumas notched up a half-century of points at Millennium Stadium last weekend. That leaves a 31-22 win over their upcoming opponents in the mid-year window as Wales’ only win from 19 games against Tier 1 opponents, starting with their early elimination from the 2023 Rugby World Cup. They have plummeted from eighth to 12th in the World Rugby rankings during that time, with Japan (13th) the only Tier 1 country beneath them. Only 0.32 points separated them during the week, so the winner of this fixture will hold the superior ranking next week.
Winger Louis Rees-Zammit will formally complete his comeback to international rugby when he starts this weekend after being named on the bench last round, whilst Olly Cracknell will wear the number eight shirt. New coach Steve Tandy has changed both props, bringing in Archie Griffith and Nicky Smith for Keiron Assiratti and Rhys Carre.
Japan missed a big opportunity to shake up Ireland last weekend when they went into half-time with momentum, a seven-point deficit, and a one-man advantage for ten minutes following Jacob Stockdale’s yellow card. But they were unable to fire a single shot away in the second half, continuing a very difficult few weeks in which they have been unable to create any kind of attacking incisiveness. Japan recorded 24 and 22 points in their two mid-year games against Wales but have been unable to replicate that in recent weeks, scoring 15 or fewer in each of their three consecutive losses.
Despite that, Japan coach Eddie Jones has made only two changes to his run-on side and one of them was forced. Ben Gunter has withdrawn from this week's match and has been replaced by Jack Cornelsen, whilst Keijiro Tamefusa comes in for Shuhei Takeuchi.
Head-to-Head History
Wales have a 14-2 record over Japan dating back to the inaugural non-capped meeting in the 1970s. Japan’s only two wins came on home soil in July 2025 and June 2013. Japan scored between 18 and 30 points in each of the last five H2Hs.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Wales lost three of their five games as betting favourites since the start of 2024.
65% of Wales’ matches since the beginning of 2024 finished under the main total points handicap.
The half-time leader won nine of Japan’s nine ten games this year.
The pre-match favourite won 13 of Japan’s last 14 matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Welsh fullback Blair Murray has become accustomed to scoring in a losing cause, finding the line in eight of his 14 appearances for Scarlets or Wales since the end of the last Six Nations. That includes last week’s game against Argentina, meaning his three try scoring games for Wales were all in defeat. Japanese hooker Kenji Sato could be a value try scorer bet after dotting down in two of his last five internationals.
Wales lost inspirational captain Jac Morgan to a shoulder dislocation last week. Japan’s Ben Gunter is unavailable for personal reasons, whilst loose forward Michael Leitch and back Tiernan Costley are both injured.
Betting Analysis
Japan have the highest success rate (70%) of covering the main pre-match handicap of all Tier 1 nations this year, so we recommend Japan to cover +12.5 points.