Match News and Current Form
A weekend of internationals that curiously falls outside of World Rugby’s ‘Regulation 9’ window, prescribed for only four of the five weekends in November, means that a fully homegrown Scotland squad will take to Murrayfield before head coach Gregor Townsend undoubtedly rings the changes ahead of tougher fixtures against New Zealand and Argentina. It is nonetheless a chance to keep tweaking and playing with new combinations ahead of next year’s Six Nations Championship, where they’ll be desperate to improve on this season’s 2-3 record.
They won’t be short of firepower with star wingers Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe, the latter of whom returns for his 50th cap after making one appearance for the British & Irish Lions, leading a strong contingent of backs. Scotland’s 29-14 midyear loss to Fiji is a fresh reminder that they can’t take Tier 2 opposition for granted, whilst their loss to the Americans seven years ago has been doing the rounds in the media as it did when the teams met last year. With six wins from their nine home games since the 2023 World Cup, it should be a different story in Edinburgh.
2025 has been a bit of a tumultuous year for the USA Eagles. A further two Major League Rugby teams collapsed this season, taking the total number of defunct franchises to 11 in a competition only seven years old, and as a result the momentum promised by the league has stalled. They secured qualification for the 2027 Rugby World Cup, but only just, and perhaps then they can only thank the expansion of the tournament to 24 nations for it.
They won the fifth-place play-off of the Pacific Nations Cup (PNC), defeating 29-13 as 6.5 point outsiders and sending the Samoans to World Rugby’s repechage tournament, and that result should give them plenty of confidence after they had lost five consecutive PNC games prior. With the security and safety of a World Cup to prepare for, it should keep them in good financial shape leading into their hosting duties at the 2031 World Cup. Since losing 104-14 at home to New Zealand in 2021, they have faced only three Tier 1 nations (Scotland, England, Japan) and lost by at least 17 points every time.
Head-to-Head History
Scotland was the first and only Tier 1 nation the USA ever defeated and that came on a hot afternoon in Houston back in 2018. Scotland avenged that with a 42-7 win in Washington last year, taking their all-time record against the USA to 6-1.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Six of Scotland’s eight games this year finished under the main total points handicap.
The first half was the highest scoring half in six of those eight games.
USA scored 14 or fewer points in their last four games against Tier 1 nations other than Japan.
Eight of USA’s last nine matches saw the winner in front at half-time.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Scottish winger Darcy Graham is back in scoring form after notching up three tries in his last two games for Edinburgh. American winger Toby Fricker ended an eight-game scoring drought with one in the crucial win over Samoa and is no stranger to scoring tries back-to-back.
Scotland are missing overseas-based players such as Finn Russell, Jamie Ritchie, Blair Kinghorn and George Turner. USA captain AJ MacGinty is facing nine months out with an Achilles injury.
Betting Analysis
With an understrength Scotland squad taking on a fired-up and battle hardened USA side, we anticipate USA will cover the +44.5 point handicap.
Author: Aaron Murphy