Match News and Current Form
After 111 years and 28 winless tests against the All Blacks, Ireland strolled out to Soldier Field on the 5th of November 2016 where they beat New Zealand for the first time ever by a 40-29 scoreline. Fast forward nine years later and the Irish no longer live in fear of their Southern Hemisphere rivals, especially considering they’re a side who arrive at this encounter having won nine of their last ten matches (L1). Their own aura will feel dampened despite that recent record, as that lone loss not only cost them a Six Nations title, but some rather flat victories in that campaign saw them ultimately finish third.
The Irish have played twice since then, handsomely beating Georgia 34-5 before putting up triple digits against Portugal in a 106-7 win, but considering they had 18 players away on British & Irish Lions duty then, Andy Farrell’s team named here looks much more like regular programming. His headline selections include Jack Crowley at flyhalf instead of Sam Prendergast who drops to the bench, where he’s joined by Bundee Aki with Stuart McCloskey taking up residency at inside centre. The team will be captained by hooker Dan Sheehan.
New Zealand arrive at Soldier Field as the betting favourites, likely due to them showing glimpses of their best selves this year where they’ve lost just two of their nine games (W7). One of those defeats was their heaviest ever at home when they lost 43-10 against double World Cup and Rugby Championship winners South Africa, and the other was a 29-23 defeat away to Argentina, showing Scott Robertson’s men still have a tendency to get it wrong from time to time. The All Blacks will know though that a win here could set them up for a successful autumn tour of the Northern Hemisphere, where they last won all their end of year matches back in 2017.
Robertson has named a team that includes all three Barrett brothers, hooker Codie Taylor, and loose forward Ardie Savea bringing the experience with 510 caps among them, while the likes of wing Leroy Carter, scrumhalf Cam Roigard, back rowers Simon Parker and Peter Lakai, and lock Fabian Holland all have something to prove with just 36 tests between them.
Head-to-Head History
These nations have split the last ten H2Hs right down the middle with five wins each, although New Zealand have won the last two.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The second half has been higher scoring in seven of Ireland’s last nine tests.
The first try of the match has been scored by a backline player in seven of Ireland’s last eight matches.
New Zealand were in front at half-time in 19 of their last 21 games (W15, L6).
New Zealand won five of their last six games in which they conceded the opening try.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Ireland’s Josh van der Flier has impressively scored a try in two of his last three tests against New Zealand, dotting down for the games first try on both occasions. His consistency is exceeded by the try-scoring machine Will Jordan, who has crossed the whitewash in each of his five prior tests against the Irish.
Ireland will be without Mack Hansen due to a foot injury, while Edwin Edogbo and Brian Gleeson have also been forced to stay at home due to a concussion and an elbow injury respectively. For New Zealand, a shoulder injury has ruled out veteran lock Patrick Tuipulotu, whose fellow lock Tupou Vaa'i is also unfit to travel, as is experienced prop Tyrel Lomax.
Betting Analysis
Five of the last six H2Hs have been won by the betting underdog heading in, therefore remaining on the safe side and backing Ireland to cover +6.5 points seems a smart play.
Author: Peter Stavrinou