Match News and Current Form
The Springbok brand continues to go from strength to strength every time South Africa enter a competition, as not only are they back-to-back world champions, but are also now consecutive Rugby Championship winners for the first time in their history. The Springboks wrapped up that title with a 29-27 victory over Argentina at Twickenham last time out, their 12th victory in their last 14 matches (L2), and will be looking to set themselves up for a positive Northern Hemisphere tour that features grudge matches against France, Italy, Ireland, and Wales.
Coach Rassie Erasmus, known for his erratic selections, has chosen a relatively settled side, barring the handing of a test debut to 21-year old prop Zachary Porthen, who will become the youngest prop to make his Test debut for the Springboks in the professional era. Franco Mostert makes an appearance at flank where he joins his captain Siya Kolisi, otherwise the only noticeable selection headline is at full-back which sees Cheslin Kolbe set to wear the #15 jersey.
Japan arrive in London off the back of the consecutive defeats, having firstly gone down 33-27 against Fiji in September, before losing last weekend 19-15 to Australia on home soil. That result would’ve stung for coach Eddie Jones, who said his team will “give it a red-hot go” against South Africa because he believes his current Japan team is “a better team than the 2015 team … I think they’ve got the potential to be better.” Jones is referring to Japan’s most memorable victory when they beat the Springboks 34-32 at the 2015 Rugby World Cup (RWC), but considering Japan are 1-7 against other Tier 1 teams since the end of the 2023 RWC, that statement is debatable at best.
Jones clearly thought his team’s showing against Australia was positive, as he’s opted for consistency with just two changes made. Charlie Lawrence replaces Shogo Nakano at centre, while Kenji Sato will play at hooker in place of Hayate Era, with the team captained by loose forward Michael Leitch.
Head-to-Head History
There have been just three prior meetings between these two nations, with South Africa avenging their 2015 defeat with a 41-7 victory prior to the 2019 RWC, and a 26-3 win in the quarter-finals of that tournament.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The second half produced more points than the first in eight of South Africa’s last nine matches.
A backline player has scored the first try in five of South Africa’s last six tests.
The opening try has been scored within ten minutes in ten of Japan’s last 12 matches.
Four of Japan’s last five matches finished above the pre-match total points line.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Cheslin Kolbe will be keen to add to his 21 international tries, having scored a brace against Japan in that 41-7 win six years ago, while also crossing the whitewash three times in his last three test matches. As for Japan, lock Warner Dearns has a craving for the tryline, having dotted down four times in Japan’s last five matches.
Injuries to Damian Willemse and Aphelele Fassi explain South Africa’s experimental backline selections, while Japan have no other injury news other than their lineup changes.
Betting Analysis
South Africa weren’t at their best defensively during the Rugby Championship, and although they’re deserving overwhelming favourites, backing Japan to score over 13.5 points could be worthwhile.
Author: Peter Stavrinou