Match News and Current Form
France return to the international scene for the first time since July, where a 3-0 series loss to New Zealand in their last few outings won’t be considered to have much meaning with a significantly weakened side sent on that tour. Les Bleus will instead be held to the standard that saw them win the Six Nations earlier this year for the second time in four seasons, which was built off them winning their two home matches handsomely in the competition. In fact, France have won 15 of their last 16 matches at the Stade de France (L1), the exception being their loss to South Africa in the 2023 World Cup, which should result in a heavily charged atmosphere here!
Coach Fabien Galthié has reverted to his stars for this game, with the forward pack littered with the big names of hooker Julien Marchand, lock Thibaud Flament, and loose forwards Anthony Jelonch and Paul Boudehent. It is in the backline where the star power really shines as flyhalf Romain Ntamack, wingers Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Damian Penaud, centre and captain Gaël Fickou, and fullback Thomas Ramos all feature.
South Africa got their Autumn tour off to a stunning start with a 61-7 thumping of Japan just over the English Channel at Wembley Stadium, consolidating having captured back-to-back Rugby Championship crowns four weeks earlier with a 29-27 win over Argentina at Twickenham. Those results mean the world’s number one ranked team have lost just three of their last 20 matches (L3), with all of those defeats coming in the Rugby Championship this year and last, the Springboks have won 21 of their last 23 fixtures outside of that tournament (L2), including their last eight in a row.
This will be coach Rassie Erasmus’s 50th Test as head coach of South Africa, and he’s selected a full-strength team in the eyes of many. The only exception to that sentiment is potentially Boan Venter’s selection at prop, but he’ll be well supported by the likes of Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, and Pieter-Steph du Toit, all of whom have 85+ tests to their names. The backline is as settled as they come, so much so that everyone except breakout flyhalf Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu featured in that famous last win over the French. Special mention must be made of captain Siya Kolisi, who will become the ninth Springbok centurion when he steps out onto the Stade de France pitch.
Head-to-Head History
South Africa won eight of the last nine H2Hs (L1), with the last four tests between these two being decided by four points or fewer.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The same half-time result has been repeated come full-time in five of France’s last six matches.
France have scored the first try in seven of their last nine tests.
The second half produced more points than the first in nine of South Africa’s last ten matches.
South Africa have won 27 of their last 31 tests when starting as the betting favourite (L4).
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Damian Penaud has failed to score a try in his previous five tests against South Africa, but breaking that duck here would see him achieve what has felt inevitable for quite some time: becoming France’s all-time top try scorer. On the opposite wing trying to steal the headlines will be Kurt-Lee Arendse, who scored a brace against Japan and has dotted down in his last two tests against France.
No headlines will be bigger than the absence of France’s usual captain and star player Antoine Dupont, who is still recovering from a knee ligament injury. As for the Springboks, they’re without prop Ox Nche who had to be sent home after picking up an injury vs Japan, while Kwagga Smith is carrying a niggle and is therefore unavailable for this match too.
Betting Analysis
There really is no picking between these two countries, therefore betting on either team to win by under 7.5 points seems a good hedge in an unpredictable game.
Author: Peter Stavrinou