Match News and Current Form
Since beating Scotland in March 2024, Italy may have felt they were due a big performance having lost nine of their 15 matches (W6) thereafter with their only wins over Tier 1 nations in that time being against Wales and Japan. The Azzurri then delivered on that promise in their historic 26-19 win over the Aussies in Udine last week, meaning they’ve now won five of their last eight Quilter Nations Series matches (L3). Their confidence against Rugby Championship-calibre opposition continues to grow, having now won two of their last four home games against the Southern Hemisphere's four premier nations (L2), this after winning just three of their 36 such games prior (L33).
Italy coach Gonzalo Quesada has no reason to tinker with his side, and making just one change proves he’s sticking with what he believes is a winning formula. The change sees prop Marco Riccioni come in for Simone Ferrari who drops to the bench, with the side being captained by centre Juan Ignacio Brex. It’ll be a special day for flanker Ross Vintcent, who was born in South Africa.
South Africa continue their end-of-year tour having beaten Japan 61-7 in London, before heading over the English Channel to Paris where they once again got the better of the French with a 32-17 win, outscoring them 19-3 in the second half with just 14 men. That result further consolidated their position as World Rugby’s number one-ranked team, and it’s easy to see why now that they’ve won 19 of their last 22 matches (L3) while even more impressively posting victory in 22 of their last 24 fixtures outside of the Rugby Championship (L2). The Springboks should be confident that their winning habits will continue here since they’ve won each of their last eight matches away to European sides.
Rassie Erasmus and his coaching staff head to the Allianz Stadium in Turin having made 11 changes to their starting XV, which will once again be led by new test centurion Siya Kolisi. The three other returning members are prop Boan Venter, wing Kurt-Lee Arendse, and fullback Damian Willemse, who brings some much needed experience to a backline shy of caps except for the talismanic Handrè Pollard at flyhalf. Upfront lock Franco Mostert boasts 82 caps, and he’ll prove pivotal alongside Kolisi as the rest with the named forward pack totaling just 55 Springbok appearances among them.
Head-to-Head History
South claimed 42-24 and 45-0 wins over Italy in July this year, extending their dominance in the H2H record to 18 wins with just one loss.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The half-time result has been repeated come full-time in nine of Italy’s last ten matches.
Six of Italy’s last nine home games were decided by seven points or fewer.
The second half produced more points than the first in eight of South Africa’s last ten matches.
South Africa scored 35+ points in each of their last five games against Italy.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Italian scrumhalf Stephen Varney could be looking to snipe around the breakdown, having gotten a taste for tries after dotting down against Ireland and Namibia earlier in the year. South Africa’s rich resources of wingers could pay dividends here with the inclusion of Edwill van der Merwe, who has five tries in four test matches, including two in the 45-0 win over Italy in July.
Italy will be without usual captain Michele Lamaro and experienced flanker Sebastian Negri through injury, while South Africa will be without the suspended Lood de Jager for the remainder of the tour after his red card against France.
Betting Analysis
Italy’s high hopes coupled with South Africa’s multiple changes could mean the Italians can beat the +18.5 point pre-match handicap.