Match News and Current Form
After sinking to an all-time low ranking of tenth in 2024 and the national governing body losing close to A$37million in the last financial year, rugby in Australia appears to be on the way back up ahead of a British & Irish Lions tour and home Rugby World Cup in 2027 that will financially save the sport from potential bankruptcy.
Their Super Rugby franchises collectively had one of their best years ever, with the Brumbies and Reds both making the finals in 2025, and there now appears to be significant competition amongst key on-field positions in the squad. They ran both New Zealand and Ireland to three-point losses, but there’s no escaping that immense improvement is needed to be competitive with the Lions the year after a rare last-placed finish in the 2024 Rugby Championship.
Fiji rugby is also in an off-field battle with Australia after their national union mounted concerns about the Australian government’s intent to inject hundreds of millions of dollars into developing rival sport rugby league in the Pacific, and with the Australian Prime Minister set to attend the fixture, the team has an additional incentive to demonstrate their worth to the region as a whole.
On the flipside, it’s rumoured that Fiji will be invited to join the inaugural Rugby Nations Championship next year, which would move them one step closer to Tier 1 status, so it’s important for them to show that wins over Japan, Wales and Australia in the last 24 months were no fluke. They had a very mixed European tour late last year, losing heavily to Ireland (52-17) and Scotland (57-17) either side of defeating Spain and Wales, so it’s anybody’s guess which Fiji shows up.
Head-to-Head History
Australia had won 15 consecutive H2Hs prior to losing 22-15 to the Flying Fijians at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, so they’ll be keen to establish what they believe is regular operations.
All six of Australia’s H2H wins this century were by margins of 15+ points.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The favourite won all six of Australia’s home games in 2024.
Australia and Fiji’s respective matches last year both averaged 55 total points per game.
Fiji won all nine matches in 2023 and 2024 when they scored the opening try.
All but one of Fiji’s 11 games last year was decided by a margin of at least nine points.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Western Force wing Harry Potter returns to the Wallabies setup after qualifying for the official Super Rugby Pacific Team of the Year during a season in which he found the line in five separate matches. Inside centre Josua Tuisova was Fiji’s sole try scorer in their RWC win over Australia and he also crossed the line in three of his last five starts as the number 12 for Racing 92.
Will Skelton and Rob Valetini are both out with calf injuries for Australia, whilst Andrew Kellaway and Taniela Tupou were both released from the squad to play for NSW Waratahs against the Lions. Former New Zealand sevens representative Salesi Rayasi will make his 15s debut for Fiji after switching allegiances.
Betting Analysis
Even though both squads are match fit, their inconsistency makes betting with confidence demonstrably difficult. Knowing Tom Wright scored in three of Australia’s last six matches as well as their first of 2024 makes him a potential anytime try scorer selection.