TOP EIGHT: Brisbane, Penrith, Canterbury, Cronulla, Melbourne, Sydney Roosters, Canberra, The Dolphins
MID-TABLE: New Zealand Warriors, Parramatta, South Sydney, Manly Warringah, Wests Tigers
BOTTOM FOUR: Newcastle, North Quewensland, Gold Coast, St George Illawarra
CONTENDERS: Is 2026 a two-horse race? Who can get past Brisbane and Penrith?
Two of last year’s preliminary finalists could dominate 2026 and set up a replay of the 2023 Grand Final after remarkable turnarounds in which they both came from outside the eight to make the finals.
It took until Round 27 for Brisbane Broncos to enter the top four, but they went on a run of comeback wins to claim their seventh premiership: 29-28 vs Canberra in the qualifying final (down 28-12), 16-14 vs Penrith in the preliminary final (down 14-0), and 26-22 vs Melbourne in the Grand Final (down 22-12).
Brisbane will be out to secure back-to-back titles for the first time since 1997/98 (or 1992/93 in a united competition) and their off-season moves included the signings of Grant Anderson, Tom Duffy, and Aublix Tawha. Adam Reynolds and Payne Haas both have one more season at the Broncos (retirement and South Sydney respectively), while Ben Hunt may not be far off retirement either.
Patrick Carrigan, Kotoni Staggs, Gehamat Shibasaki, and Reece Walsh will want to replicate the magical seasons that gave them a premiership and Kangaroos jerseys, while Walsh’s finals run will be remembered for a long time.
The World Club Challenge loss to Hull KR (30-24) summed up how chaotic their footy can be: they only needed 20 minutes to charge back into the game and nearly pull off another miracle comeback.
After missing their first Grand Final since 2019, the Penrith Panthers will be aiming for top two minimum as they had to win 12 out of 15 games last season to reach the preliminary final. They’ve been shoring up their depth in the off-season, while premiership winner Jack Cogger returns from Newcastle.
For the first time since their run started, the Panthers will have something to strive for rather than just trying to defend a premiership. The Round 1 Brisbane vs Penrith game could be an early Grand Final preview, and it likely wasn't a coincidence they've been scheduled to meet so early in the season.
They've already had an early win in 2026 of sorts after getting Nathan Cleary's two-game ban downgraded to a fine during the week.
Canterbury and Cronulla are building towards premiership runs, but which side is ready to go further?
The Canterbury Bulldogs made their second straight finals series under Cameron Ciraldo, though they didn’t capitalise on the top four finish. Leo Thompson is their main signing (but is out for at least two months), though Kade Dykes, Fletcher Baker, Sean O'Sullivan, and Gordon Chan Kum Tong could help their depth.
Questions remain over their halves pairing: after all the drama (and endless headlines) in 2025, they'll be hopeful that Lachlan Galvin is now settled enough to make a serious impact after a full pre-season at his new club and can form a solid partnership with Matt Burton in the halves. It has been more than a decade since they last won a finals game, and another top-four finish would give them two more opportunities to end the drought.
The Cronulla Sharks have shed their so-called “flat track bully” tag with consecutive preliminary finals. They’ve been quiet in the off-season, and they lost Daniel Atkinson to St George Illawarra.
While they shouldn’t have many Origin commitments (though Addin Fonua-Blake and Briton Nikora could play under the new eligibility rules), they’ll be without Cam McInnes and Ronaldo Mulitalo for the first half of the season. They're in the mix for a top-four finish if they can carry their momentum from last year into 2026.
Coming off consecutive Grand Final losses, Melbourne Storm will be desperate for redemption, but significant off-season movement could hurt them. They’ve lost Grant Anderson, Bronson Garlick, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Jonah Pezet, and Nelson Asofa-Solomona. Eli Katoa won’t be playing in 2026, and Xavier Coates is out for between two to three months.
Even if they don’t make the top four, they’ll still be dangerous going the long way around, though a lot of responsibility will fall on key players like Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes, and Harry Grant.
The Sydney Roosters and Canberra could also be top four contenders but have some question marks.
The biggest question that Easts need to resolve is how Daly Cherry-Evans and Sam Walker will work together. The Roosters were so much better with Walker as the focal point last season: returning in Round 19, he scored 79 points (39 goals and one field goal) in nine games as the Roosters finished eighth. It'll be fascinating to see which of the two, if not both, assumes control of the halves.
If they click, expect plenty of try-scoring opportunities for James Tedesco, Daniel Tupou, Robert Toia, and Mark Nawaqanitawase. NSW Origin hooker Reece Robson has joined the Roosters, but is out for around eight weeks, meaning Connor Watson should have the starting hooker spot for now.
Nawaqanitawase's campaign will be especially interesting knowing it's his last - at least for now, with the Roosters reportedly discussing a potential return in 2028 after the Rugby World Cup.
Canberra Raiders were the surprise 2025 minor premiers and face to challenge of not only having to back that up but carry their good footy deeper into September. Ethan Sanders takes the lead as a starting half after the departure of Jamal Fogarty and could face pressure from Coby Black, who may also be developed through the NSW Cup side. We'll know soon enough just how much Fogarty will be missed.
Ricky Stuart will have to work out where Jayden Brailey fits in the hooker rotation with Tom Starling and Owen Pattie, how to improve their fragile right-edge defence, and the best way to utilise Daine Laurie on the new six-man bench. Will the scarring of the Brisbane and Cronulla finals losses motivate them?
There are so many questions ahead of the Raiders that only time can answer, but a repeat of last year's performance is far from assured.
The Dolphins should make their first finals series after narrowly missing out in 2025. They were sixth after Round 22, but lost to the Sydney Roosters, Brisbane, and Manly to fall out. While injuries at the wrong time hurt them again, they’ve signed Englishman Morgan Knowles, Selwyn Cobbo, and Brad Schneider for depth.
The boys from Redcliffe need their main attacking weapons such as Isaiya Katoa, Jamayne Isaako, Herbie Farnworth, and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to play most of the season so that they can build a fresh period of exciting attacking influency.
IMPROVERS: Which clubs are the outsiders with top-eight potential?
The New Zealand Warriors’ 2026 hopes could hinge on their first two months as they wait for Luke Metcalf to return – they’ll need to be in or around the eight, which is where James Fisher-Harris’ premiership experience will be crucial. They'll be needing Tanah Boyd to keep things stable while Metcalf is out.
The potential backline combination of Alofiana Khan-Pereira, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck should be exciting.
The Warriors had the worst points differential in the top eight last season (+21), and whether they can defend well enough to win at least 13 games remains to be seen. It could be a race between the Wahs and Dolphins for an elimination final spot.
Parramatta Eels were arguably the form team of the bottom nine last season. If it wasn’t for Mitchell Moses missing the opening few rounds, they could have squeezed into the finals. Jason Ryles has invested in the rebuild, and they’ve signed Jack de Belin, Jonah Pezet (for 2026), and Brian Kelly. The Zac Lomax saga continues to drag on and be an unwanted distraction, though it shouldn't be on the minds of the playing squad.
Parramatta also won the 2026 Pre-Season Challenge, beating Cronulla and the Sydney Roosters. While it’s “only” two trials, it’s still a sign of how far the Eels have developed since 2025, and the $100,000 prizemoney should come in handy.
While South Sydney Rabbitohs had a nightmare 2025, they could rise up the ladder IF most of their top 17 stays fit. Wayne Bennett could get the best out of David Fifita, Keaon Koloamatangi will be motivated to leave Souths on a good note (before he goes to St George Illawarra), and Bronson Garlick and Adam Elliott should be solid additions. Souths fans will also likely celebrate Alex Johnston passing Ken Irvine as the game’s top try-scorer.
The perfect moment would be at Allianz Stadium in Round 2 - another dramatic chapter in the “Easts vs Souths” rivalry.
Will Fogarty be an adequate replacement for DCE at Manly Sea Eagles? While he was mostly excellent for the Raiders, he was unable to respond when the pressure was on (as harsh as it sounds, his missed conversion of Ethan Strange’s try in the qualifying final gave Brisbane the opening they needed) and his defensive problems added to Canberra’s fragile right edge.
Tom Trbojevic’s impact as captain depends on him staying fit for most of the season. Anthony Seibold will surely be under sustained pressure if the Sea Eagles struggle again.
The Wests Tigers finally making progress on the field in 2025 was overshadowed with more dramas (mainly the Galvin saga and the Holman Barnes Group).
Even if the Tigers don’t make the finals, they must show that progress is there to silence the almost inevitable noise, clickbait, and negative headlines. Kai Pearce-Paul should be a good addition to their forward pack and re-signing Benji long term should give the Tigers stability.
PRETENDERS: The teams that should be planning for 2027 and beyond
I expect Newcastle, North Queensland, Gold Coast, and St George Illawarra will make up the bottom four.
Newcastle Knights welcome Dylan Brown on a 10-year, $13 million deal and fresh off an excellent Pacific Championship for New Zealand (many believed he should have won the Golden Boot), while Trey Mooney should get more first grade opportunities at the Knights. Newcastle was poor in attack in 2025 but showed glimpses of what they’re capable of.
They'll be looking for an immediate impact from Brown as far as last year's point-scoring woes were concerned, and if he can't, I wonder how long it'll be until we start seeing “Kalyn Ponga to (insert new NRL/rugby union club)” speculation in the newspapers...
The NQ Cowboys are an exciting attacking team, but their defence is still a problem. Reed Mahoney will be motivated after the messy exit from Canterbury and will give the Cowboys plenty of mongrel and their attacking weapons plenty of opportunities. But will that be enough, and how long will Todd Payten last if the Cowboys start slowly given he was one of the most under-fire coaches of 2025?
Gold Coast (Josh Hannay) and Newcastle (Justin Holbrook) both have new coaches that will need time to make their mark on some squads that are lacking in certain areas of the park.
The Gold Coast Titans have lost Reagan Campbell-Gillard, David Fifita, Kieran Foran, and Khan-Pereira, though Tino Fa'asuamaleaui re-signing until the end of 2030 will give fans hope. But Hannay may need a few years to make the Titans consistently competitive.
St George Illawarra Dragons will be competitive most weeks, but they need to win more close games to avoid the wooden spoon. It'll be interesting to see just how much a potential Atkinson-Kyle Flanagan halves pairing can help them.