Zverev vs Sinner - 21:30 CET
Match news and form
Alexander Zverev has looked extremely solid at the Indian Wells Masters this fortnight, navigating a tough path to the semi-finals with impressive authority. The German has faced four notable opponents and dropped just one set across those matches, showing consistent control throughout the event. His level has only improved as the tournament has progressed, particularly in commanding wins over the in-form Frances Tiafoe and Arthur Fils. Zverev conceded only 12 games combined in those two matches, winning 6-3, 6-4 and 6-2, 6-3 respectively.
This run already stands as one of Zverev’s most satisfying results in over a year, as several of his recent deep runs had still fallen short of expectations or past achievements at the same events. At Indian Wells, he has finally broken new ground by reaching his first-ever semi-final after 10 previous appearances, where his best results were only a couple of quarter-finals. The German now faces world number two with a chance to elevate this campaign further. A strong performance here could also signal a return of confidence after a difficult spell in recent months.
Jannik Sinner had a brief wobble in the round of 16, where he was pushed hard by Joao Fonseca and needed two tiebreaks to come through in straight sets. However, the Italian quickly rediscovered his rhythm in the quarter-finals, producing a dominant 6-1, 6-2 victory over Learner Tien to book his place in the semi-finals without dropping a set. Sinner is now chasing his best result at Indian Wells, having previously reached the semi-finals in 2023 and 2024, both times losing to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Considering the dominant form Sinner displayed over the past couple of years, and the way he closed the 2025 season by winning the ATP Finals without dropping a set, few would have expected him to still be searching for his first title match by March 2026. The Italian has not looked quite at his best in the early months of this season. His only semi-final appearance ended in a gruelling five-set defeat to Novak Djokovic. Sinner has not completed three consecutive tournaments without reaching a final since 2023, and that record will be on the line this Saturday.
Head-to-head
Zverev had the upper hand in this rivalry by 2023, holding a 4-1 lead in their early meetings. Over the last two years, the Italian has dominated almost everyone on tour except Alcaraz, and Zverev is no exception. Sinner currently rides a five-match winning streak in this matchup, which has helped him compile a 6-4 lead in the head-to-head series.
Stats & facts
• Zverev is 12–11 in Masters semi-final matches and is currently on a three-match losing streak at this stage.
• Zverev has not beaten a higher-ranked opponent since the Australian Open 2024 and is currently on a 10-match losing streak against such players.
• Sinner holds a 9–4 record in Masters semi-finals, with two of those losses coming at Indian Wells.
• Sinner has won 12 of his last 13 matches against top 10 opponents.
Betting analysis
Sinner appears more vulnerable now than at any point in the last two years, which opens a window for a physically strong and experienced opponent like Zverev to challenge him. However, Zverev’s recurring struggles against elite opponents, where he often retreats into a defensive shell and shows little belief in key moments, make him difficult to trust outright.
The value may instead lie in expecting a competitive match rather than backing him to win. Zverev has the tools to keep this tight as the contest progresses. Backing over 20.5 games, Zverev +1.5 in the second set, or even Zverev to win the second set all look like reasonable angles.
Zverev in 2026
Best results: Australian Open (semi-finals)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Australian Open (semi-finals)
Record: 11-3
Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2
Record on outdoor hard courts: 11-3
Record against top 10: 0-1 (career 58-81)
Record in ATP Masters 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 12-11)
Record in semi-finals: 0-1 (career 40-39)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (semi-finals)
Zverev at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 17-9
Best result: Semi-finals (2026)
Last year's result: Round of 64
Record in semi-finals: 0-0
Preparation: Acapulco (Round of 16)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, M. Berrettini (6-3, 6-4), (28) Nakashima (7-6, 5-7, 6-4), (21) Tiafoe (6-3, 6-4), (32) Fils (6-2, 6-3)
Sinner in 2026
Best results: Australian Open (semi-finals)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Australian Open (semi-finals)
Record: 11-2
Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2
Record on outdoor hard courts: 11-2
Record against top 10: 1-1 (career 60-37)
Record in ATP Masters 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 9-4)
Record in semi-finals: 0-1 (career 33-12)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (semi-finals)
Sinner at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 15-3
Best result: semi-finals (2023, 2024, 2026)
Last year's result: Did not play
Record in semi-finals: 0-2
Preparation: Doha (quarter-finals)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Svrcina (6-1, 6-1), Shapovalov (6-3, 6-2), Fonseca (7-6, 7-6), (25) Tien (6-1, 6-2)
Alcaraz vs Medvedev - 23:00 CET
Match news and form
Carlos Alcaraz has been a ruthless force this season, combining an insanely high level of play with a razor-sharp focus and intensity rarely seen from him in the past. That confidence has allowed the Spaniard to dictate matches entirely on his own terms, leaving opponents struggling to keep up. It was evident in the third round when Arthur Rinderknech led by a set and a break before Alcaraz raised his level and completely took over the match. A similar pattern appeared in the quarter-finals against Cameron Norrie, where he calmly recovered from an early break in the second set and raced to a 6-3, 6-4 win.
The Spaniard is enjoying the best start to a season of his career, and the achievements he continues to collect are only boosting his confidence further. He claimed maiden titles at the Australian Open and in Doha in his previous two outings. While he cannot recreate that exact feeling at Indian Wells this week, he has a chance to achieve something different. Alcaraz aims to make Indian Wells his most successful Masters event by capturing a third title here, having previously won in 2023 and 2024, before a surprise semi-final loss to Jack Draper in 2025.
Daniil Medvedev may currently sit 10 places below Alcaraz in the ATP rankings, but in terms of recent form, he trails only the Spaniard. The Russian arrives in excellent shape after winning the Dubai title without dropping a set and backing it up with another dominant run to the semi-finals at Indian Wells, again without losing a set. Across these two tournaments, he has conceded more than four games in a set only once. That came in the quarter-finals this week against defending champion Draper.
Former world No.1 Medvedev has struggled badly against Alcaraz and Sinner in recent years, which has clearly dented his confidence and kept him out of the mix for the biggest titles. The fact that he has not won a Masters or Slam in the last two years, during a period when Alcaraz and Sinner have dominated the top level, highlights the extent of those struggles. A win over either of them at this stage would do wonders for Medvedev’s confidence. With momentum and belief finally building again in his game, this could be one of those rare opportunities for him to challenge and potentially defeat the sport’s current elite.
Head-to-head
Medvedev won the pair's first-ever meeting at Wimbledon 2021, but Alcaraz has since dominated the rivalry. The Spaniard now holds a 6-2 lead in the head-to-head series and arrives on a four-match winning streak in this matchup.
Stats & facts
• Alcaraz has won 17 of his 17 matches this year, with 13 of those victories coming in straight sets.
• Alcaraz is 9–3 in Masters semi-final matches, with his most recent defeat coming here at Indian Wells last year.
• Two of Medvedev’s last three losses at this tournament came against Alcaraz, both in finals (2023 & 2024).
• Medvedev holds a strong record against world number ones, winning 7 of his 15 matches against them.
Betting analysis
Alcaraz looks almost unstoppable right now, but Medvedev’s current hard-court form means he cannot be written off. The Russian has been one of the standout performers on North American hard courts in this decade, and with the confidence and momentum he currently carries, he is capable of challenging anyone.
Opposing Alcaraz outright is still difficult given his unbeaten start to the year and recent dominance in this matchup. However, Medvedev’s level suggests he has a solid chance to take at least a set in this contest.
Alcaraz in 2026
Best results: Doha, Australian Open (title)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Doha, Australian Open (title)
Record: 16-0
Record in the last 10 matches: 10-0
Record on outdoor hard courts: 16-0
Record against top 20: 7-0 (career 98-37)
Record in ATP Masters 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 9-3)
Record in semi-finals: 2-0 (career 34-12)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (title)
Alcaraz at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 24-3
Best result: Title (2023 & 2024)
Last year's result: Semi-finals
Record in semi-finals: 2-2
Preparation: Doha (title)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Dimitrov (6-2, 6-3), (26) Rinderknech (6-7, 6-3, 6-2), (13) Ruud (6-1, 7-6), (27) Norrie (6-3, 6-4)
Medvedev in 2026
Best results: Dubai, Brisbane (title)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Dubai, Brisbane (title)
Record: 17-3
Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1
Record on outdoor hard courts: 17-2
Record against top 10: 1-0 (career 51-53)
Record in ATP Masters 1000 semi-finals: 0-0 (career 10-6)
Record in semi-finals: 2-0 (career 42-22)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (Round of 16)
Medvedev at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 24-8
Best result: Final (2023 & 2024)
Last year's result: semi-finals
Record in semi-finals: 2-1
Preparation: Doha (Round of 16), Dubai (title)
Road to the semi-finals: Bye, Tabilo (6-4, 6-2), Baez (6-4, 6-0), Michelsen (6-2, 6-4), (14) Draper (6-1, 7-5)