Match News and Current Form
New Zealand are undefeated having faced Zimbabwe and South Africa once each for two very comfortable victories, chasing just 121 within 14 overs two days after a score of 173 was 21 runs too many for South Africa. Their bowlers have picked an impressive 17 of a possible 20 wickets so far, although they haven’t been spread evenly with six of them coming from opening fast bowler Matt Henry.
The former World Cup runners-up have won six of their last seven matches in this format including four successful run chases with at least five wickets to spare and they go into this game as the fastest scoring full member nation of 2025, putting on 1290 runs at a rate of 10.16rpo, just 0.03rpo behind the West Indies who are much more renowned for their big hitting.
South Africa’s second-string bowling attack will be giving them a much tougher test on this occasion after, in their previous round robin game against New Zealand, they conceded the highest T20I score the Harare Sports Club had seen since India pummelled the Zimbabweans with 234 and 182 shortly after the 2024 T20 World Cup.
To the surprise of nobody, they were far too good for Zimbabwe on two separate occasions in this tri-series, chasing 145 within 18 overs and 142 within 16 during two controlled innings. On both occasions they faced modest targets in the 140s, and the last time these two sides met they crumbled under the pressure of something larger. Now they need to bounce back and avoid a repeat of allowing both West Indies and India to inflict successive defeats on them in the previous 12 months.
Head-to-Head History
Head-to-head history suggests that won’t be happening, for the last time New Zealand won successive T20Is over South Africa was… never.
The Proteas retain a 11-5 record over the Blackcaps, even though New Zealand’s last two such victories came within the last three meetings and both on African soil.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The average run rate in Harare this year is 7.73rpo (211 overs bowled)
In the last 12 Harare T20Is, any first innings score of 153+ was a winning one and anything under 153 was not
A New Zealand batter scored a half-century in each of their last five T20Is
Five of South Africa’s last six opening partnerships were worth 1-6 runs
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Matt Henry’s numbers in this format have been steadily improving after he snagged three-wicket hauls for the second and third time in his career during this series. In seven of his last eight T20Is he has claimed multiple wickets and these pitches have been to his liking. Rubin Hermann stated his desire to be South Africa’s new ‘finisher’ in the mould of David Miller, and whilst he hasn’t been there at the final ball in this series, his 109 runs in three innings have been most welcome.
New Zealand are missing Glenn Phillips for the rest of the series after he collected an unwanted groin injury during the recent MLC final in the USA.
Betting Analysis
We unsuccessfully tipped South Africa to take out the previous head-to-head, and with our tail between our legs, are instead turning to Matt Henry to take over 1.5 wickets given his outstanding recent performances in this format.