Belgium must win this UEFA Nations League (UNL) Group A1 clash against Italy if they’re to secure a place in the quarter-finals, but the visitors need only a draw to reach the knockouts.
Match News and Current Form
Belgium kept their qualification hopes alive by coming from behind to beat Turkey 2-1 on Thursday, but must now win again to progress beyond the group stage for just the second time in five editions of the UNL. Their midweek result continued a pattern of the Red Devils alternating between wins and defeats across their last seven fixtures (W4, L3) although Mark van Bommel’s side have at least shown more consistency at home. Their 1-0 defeat to France on matchday two remains their only defeat on home soil since November 2024 (W6, D1), when they lost 1-0 to Italy in this competition, so they’ll be desperate to avoid history repeating itself here.
Italy also recovered from going behind on Thursday, beating France 3-1 to head into the final matchday on top of the group and just needing to avoid defeat to confirm their progress, although should Turkey beat France, they’ll qualify regardless of the result here. The Azzurri are unbeaten since opening this campaign by losing 2-0 to Belgium in Rome (W3, D1), as Roberto Mancini’s efforts to rebuild the squad and introduce younger players continue to bear fruit. Italy remain hard to beat on their travels, as they haven’t been beaten in regulation time across their last eight games away from home (W6, D2 - 90-minute outcomes), which also bodes well for this fixture.
Head-to-Head History
Belgium’s 2-0 win over Italy on matchday one was their first H2H success since November 2015 (D1, L4). Italy have won three of the last four meetings in Belgium (L1).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Belgium failed to score after half-time in four of their last six matches.
Belgium kept five clean sheets across their last seven competitive home games.
Italy conceded exactly once in each of their last four matches.
Five of Italy’s last six away games produced under 2.5 goals.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Charles De Ketelaere has scored four goals across Belgium’s last seven games, including the winner against Turkey, his fourth successive international strike to arrive before half-time. Davide Frattesi has scored in two of his last four international appearances, and all nine of his goalscoring appearances for Italy contributed to wins.
Romelu Lukaku missed Belgium’s victory in Turkey with a hip problem but may return here, while Italy don't appear to have any fresh injury concerns.
For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.
Betting Analysis
Belgium’s inconsistency during this campaign and Italy’s excellent recent record on the road suggests it might be worth considering backing the draw.
Author: John Pennington