Perth’s 60,000-seat Optus Stadium is the venue as Australia looks to avenge last weekend’s loss to New Zealand in Auckland and take the lead in the Rugby Championship for at least a few hours.
Match News and Current Form
Australia are understandably outsiders for this clash after a gallant loss to the All Blacks at Eden Park which saw them move down to third on the standings with a 2-3 record. They’ll need an unlikely bonus point victory here to take first place on the table and at least have a shot at their first Rugby Championship title since 2015. Perhaps the most important thing at stake for the Wallabies, though, is a World Cup pool seeding that would come with being in sixth place on the World Rugby rankings at the end of 2025. They have since relinquished sixth to Argentina during this tournament, making every game from hereon in oh so crucial.
Head coach Joe Schmidt has some extra troops at his disposal and has very happily recalled Will Skelton to the second row, which should bolster the Wallabies’ chances at the lineout against a side that has scored 14 tries from lineouts at this Rugby Championship - five more than any other team. Schmidt has liked what he saw in new starting number ten Tane Edmed last week including an eye-catching 50-22. Schmidt himself raised eyebrows by choosing to bench Rob Valetini, asserting that last week’s back row combinations “merited continuance”.
New Zealand have had an unusually leaky defence that has conceded an average of 27 points per game across the first five rounds and they’re at risk of finishing a Rugby Championship season with a negative points differential for the first time in six years. But that is the last thing that will be on the mind of head coach Scott Robertson, who will have an eye on a booming bonus point victory to ensure that tournament favourites South Africa have to defeat Argentina later on Saturday to clinch the title.
Leicester Fainga’anuku gets another opportunity on the left wing after being shut out of the All Blacks setup whilst playing in France and injuries have also forced Robertson to turn to Rieko Ioane once again. Winning consistency has eluded New Zealand throughout this tournament - all five of their games saw them alternate between victory and defeat - but considering the below head-to-head history, if they got to pick one opponent to face in the final round with a title push on the line, it would probably be Australia.
Head-to-Head History
New Zealand are now on a ten-game winning streak against Australia since a 24-22 loss in Brisbane during the 2020 season. This includes four wins on the trot in Australia - their equal-longest since going 15 straight from 1938 to 1974.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Australia’s last six losses have all been by single digit margins.
Seven of Australia’s last 11 tries against New Zealand were scored by forwards.
Only three of New Zealand’s last six games saw the same team leading at the end of both halves.
New Zealand won five of their last six games in which they conceded the opening try.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Carlo Tizzano has been one of the Wallabies’ surprise performers off the bench with 18 out of 18 tackles and two tries in his last 85 minutes of international rugby. He could be one to dot down at value given the frequency of Wallabies forwards scoring in this matchup. All Blacks Leroy Carter gets a well-earned start at number 14 after scoring tries in each of New Zealand’s last two games.
Australia’s five changes have been tactical thanks to some recoveries, but Angus Bell and Tate McDermott are not amongst them. New Zealand are missing Caleb Clarke, Tyrel Lomax and Ethan de Groot with injuries.
Betting Analysis
Australia have covered the main spread in two-thirds of their games this season but this one looks a little too generous. New Zealand to cover -4.5 points.
Author: Aaron Murphy