The penultimate round of the 2025 Rugby Championship will prove as vital as any that have come before it, considering all teams are on two wins and two losses after four rounds, with both South Africa and Argentina coming off monumental victories last time out.
Match News and Current Form
World champions South Africa produced a truly stunning display last time out against New Zealand, when they ran in six tries and 36 unanswered second-half points to inflict the heaviest defeat the All Blacks have ever suffered with a 43-10 victory. That monumental performance put them back on track to potentially retain their Rugby Championship crown for the first time ever, and a trip to Kings Park Stadium in Durban should aid nicely in that endeavour, considering the Springboks have won four of their last five tests there, including each of their previous three Rugby Championship encounters.
Coach Rassie Erasmus isn’t known for consistency in his squad selection, but he’s chosen familiarity over experimentation this time around with just two changes to his starting XV. Both are injury-induced, with Lood de Jager and Aphelele Fassi being replaced by the experience of Eben Etzebeth (136 caps) and Damian de Allende (91 caps) at lock and fullback respectively, although de Allende will slot in at centre which shifts Damian Willemse to fullback. The team will be captained once again by Siya Kolisi.
Argentina have refused to yield in this Rugby Championship campaign as, after losing both of their first ties against New Zealand and Australia, Los Pumas bounced back on both occasions with historic victories. They’d prefer not to get off on a losing note this time around, and will be motivated by the potential of winning back-to-back tests for the first time since last September - which included a win over the Springboks - as it would see them defeat all the other Rugby Championship participating nations in the same campaign for the second year in a row, having never previously done so!
In pursuit of that feat, coach Felipe Contepomi has made three changes to his starting XV, all in the forwards, with a brand new set of locks in Franco Molina and Lucas Paulos coming in, with the other change being the inclusion of Pablo Matera at flank. The team will be captained by experienced hooker Julián Montoya.
Head-to-Head History
The Springboks have dominated the recent H2Hs, winning nine of the last ten encounters against Los Pumas, while also racking up 18 wins against them in their last 19 home tests, although that lone defeat did come at this ground in 2015.
Hot Stats and Streaks
South Africa have alternated between wins and losses in their last seven games in the Rugby Championship (W4, L3).
South Africa have scored first, led at half-time and ended up winning in five of their last seven home tests.
Six of Argentina’s eight games this year finished under the pre-match total points handicap.
Argentina have conceded 30+ points in just one of their last six away matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
South Africa’s Pieter-Steph du Toit never stops running and tackling, but he proved nifty around the try line too when these sides last met, crossing the white wash twice on that occasion. Argentina’s greatest threat may be on their bench in talented flyhalf Tomás Albornoz, who will be welcomed back from injury and could have an immediate impact having scored tries in his last two tests against South Africa, as well as being directly involved in three of his last four tests away from home (two tries, one try assist).
Grant Williams is nursing a niggle, while Marnus van der Merwe has fallen out of the matchday 23 for South Africa. As for Argentina, all their changes to their matchday 23 appear to be tactical ones.
Betting Analysis
Two of South Africa’s last three tests, all three of Argentina’s last three games, and the previous H2H between these two all finished between 50-55 total points, making that points range worth a nibble.
Author: Peter Stavrinou